TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Humiliation Machine: Take the Risks That You Get Paid to Take

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The market is a humiliation machine. When you are being the most rational, the market makes you look the most stupid. This is not a bug, it’s a feature. Why? Because the rational[…]

Potash: A Study in Patience

POSTED ON December 14th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We have watched and waited for a decade for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) to become cheap enough to purchase again. A few days ago, we finally pulled the trigger and decided to[…]

Legendary Value Investor John Neff: Investing into the Peak

POSTED ON August 24th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Even in the most expensive and challenging markets, disciplined value investors can find thoughtful investments with limited risk. One of the many lessons we learned from legendary[…]

The Discipline of Discomfort

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The discipline of discomfort demands that investors who seek to outperform must make hard choices, choices that don’t come naturally. This often means cultivating controversy in your[…]

Hippocratic Investing: First Do No Harm

POSTED ON April 20th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Our level of caution varies depending on where we are in the cycle in terms of time and valuation. The discipline of replacement cost analysis helps us in this endeavor.

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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