TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Message of the Yield Curve

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 20,000. Yet we now find ourselves deep into the fourth longest expansion in recent history. For good reason, investors are asking if this[…]

Activity Does Not Equal Progress: The Value of Patience and the Importance of Valuation

POSTED ON January 12th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Indicators, Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The two most necessary preconditions for successful investing are 1.) insight and 2.) patience. One without the other will do you absolutely no good. Held patiently, a diversified[…]

Trumpnomics on International Trade: The Times They Are a Changing

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Do not underestimate the determination of the incoming Trump Administration to overturn the established norms of international trade. Don’t be surprised if, at the first opportunity,[…]

Bond Weakness Is a Temporary Setback and Not the Cycle’s End

POSTED ON November 17th - POSTED IN Bonds, Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion What does last week’s election mean for the markets? The election has been positive for the equity market but negative for bonds. Are bonds through? A veritable galaxy of investment[…]

A Bull Market in Populism and De-Globalization

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We expect that the upcoming Presidential election in the U.S. may add further evidence supporting the growth of a powerful and global bull market in populism and its corollary,[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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