TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Art of Contrary Thinking

POSTED ON May 6th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - The business of investing is a strange business. It utilizes all the modern tools that one would expect: computers, spreadsheets, detailed financial modeling, earnings forecasts, research trips and[…]

"Seeing the Ball" Clearly: The Value of a Cogent and Controversial Narrative

By Lewis Johnson - Baseball is back! With the return of April and the rainy season here in south Florida, baseball has returned. As thoughts turn to baseball, I am reminded of the epic 1991 season for the Atlanta[…]

Pay Attention to What "Shouldn't" be Happening

POSTED ON April 1st - POSTED IN Credit, Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - I have learned a number of important lessons in my investing career. One of the most important lessons was to pay close attention to events in the market that did not seem to make sense. Oftentimes[…]

Secular Trends Uniting?

POSTED ON February 25th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Investing is about anticipating and profiting from change. But change can be hard to spot. Often the biggest changes are the ones that are the hardest to see. Of course, it is these huge unexpected[…]

Götterdämmerung: Twilight of the All-Powerful Central Bankers?

POSTED ON January 28th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - The markets have been very busy – and volatile – the last few days. And these days have not been altogether happy ones for many investors. This week as I write this letter I somehow find myself[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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