Trends & Tail Risks https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks Trends & Tail Risks by Lewis Johnson en Mon, 08 Nov 2021 15:15:47 GMT 2021-11-08T15:15:47Z en The Bizarro World of Chinese Real Estate https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-bizarro-world-of-chinese-real-estate <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-bizarro-world-of-chinese-real-estate" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/TTR%20Dinny%20Copy%202%20%2810%29.jpg" alt="The Bizarro World of Chinese Real Estate" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p style="font-size: 15px;"><em><span style="color: #003c63;">There are two reasons why you should care about the ongoing meltdown of China’s overindebted property developers. The first is that, in my opinion, these debt-driven companies are at far greater risk of extreme financial distress than consensus currently expects. The second, is that their weakness threatens to spread into other markets globally. After all, there is a reason that financial distress is often called “contagious.” It leaps from where it started to other previously un-infected markets. Right now, with the U.S. and many other markets ignoring the Chinese meltdown, we think it’s a time for exercising caution. Today, we outline the “Bizarro World” dynamics that are driving China’s property developers and how that could weigh on global asset markets. Our goal in doing so is to set the stage for why you should listen to our recent interview with former Wall Street Journal reporter and author of “China’s Great Wall of Debt” Dinny McMahon (see link at the end of this piece).</span></em></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-bizarro-world-of-chinese-real-estate" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/TTR%20Dinny%20Copy%202%20%2810%29.jpg" alt="The Bizarro World of Chinese Real Estate" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p style="font-size: 15px;"><em><span style="color: #003c63;">There are two reasons why you should care about the ongoing meltdown of China’s overindebted property developers. The first is that, in my opinion, these debt-driven companies are at far greater risk of extreme financial distress than consensus currently expects. The second, is that their weakness threatens to spread into other markets globally. After all, there is a reason that financial distress is often called “contagious.” It leaps from where it started to other previously un-infected markets. Right now, with the U.S. and many other markets ignoring the Chinese meltdown, we think it’s a time for exercising caution. Today, we outline the “Bizarro World” dynamics that are driving China’s property developers and how that could weigh on global asset markets. Our goal in doing so is to set the stage for why you should listen to our recent interview with former Wall Street Journal reporter and author of “China’s Great Wall of Debt” Dinny McMahon (see link at the end of this piece).</span></em></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Fthe-bizarro-world-of-chinese-real-estate&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> Credit Risk yield curve trends Fri, 05 Nov 2021 17:10:00 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-bizarro-world-of-chinese-real-estate 2021-11-05T17:10:00Z Buy Your Winter Coat in the Summer – When it’s on Sale! https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/buy-your-winter-coat-in-the-summer-when-its-on-sale <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/buy-your-winter-coat-in-the-summer-when-its-on-sale" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/TTR%20Buy%20Your%20Winter%20Coat.jpg" alt="Buy Your Winter Coat in the Summer – When it’s on Sale!" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><em><span style="color: #003c63;">Investments that could be considered “safe” have changed over time. One key driver of this change is how our financial authorities, in particular the world’s central bankers, have chosen to react to developments. When confronted with unexpected economic weakness, these central bankers cut interest rates. Falling interest rates are good for the prices of the highest quality, longer duration bonds. This has historically made them especially appealing to own in an equity rich portfolio. With U.S. equity markets at new all-time highs, we believe that now is an excellent time to begin rebuilding such hedges in the fixed income markets. We are trying to buy our winter coat in the summer! When it’s on sale.</span></em></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/buy-your-winter-coat-in-the-summer-when-its-on-sale" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/TTR%20Buy%20Your%20Winter%20Coat.jpg" alt="Buy Your Winter Coat in the Summer – When it’s on Sale!" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><em><span style="color: #003c63;">Investments that could be considered “safe” have changed over time. One key driver of this change is how our financial authorities, in particular the world’s central bankers, have chosen to react to developments. When confronted with unexpected economic weakness, these central bankers cut interest rates. Falling interest rates are good for the prices of the highest quality, longer duration bonds. This has historically made them especially appealing to own in an equity rich portfolio. With U.S. equity markets at new all-time highs, we believe that now is an excellent time to begin rebuilding such hedges in the fixed income markets. We are trying to buy our winter coat in the summer! When it’s on sale.</span></em></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Fbuy-your-winter-coat-in-the-summer-when-its-on-sale&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> yield curve interest rates liquidity Central Banking Thu, 02 Sep 2021 19:37:54 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/buy-your-winter-coat-in-the-summer-when-its-on-sale 2021-09-02T19:37:54Z Déjà Vu All Over Again https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/d%C3%A9j%C3%A0-vu-all-over-again <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/déjà-vu-all-over-again" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/D%C3%A9j%C3%A0%20Vu%20All%20Over%20Again%20Image_8.12.21-1.png" alt="Deja Vu All Over Again" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #003c63;"><em>California’s well-intentioned “clean energy” policies are only just starting to bear the first of the bitter fruits of unanticipated consequences we expect for the state’s long-suffering electricity consumers, who are paying more for less reliable power. This is not how it was supposed to work, not in one of the world’s most advanced economies. What in the world is going on? Today, we outline what is going wrong in California as it suffers through one of the worst policy-induced mistakes I have seen in energy in my investment career. We also examine the investment opportunities that are likely to spring from fixing the mess by reflecting on a past ill-designed (but well-intentioned) “green energy” policy: the ethanol mandate of 2005. The takeaway? Think – and invest - carefully. Reality may end up being quite different from what is advertised and broadly expected.</em></span></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/déjà-vu-all-over-again" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/D%C3%A9j%C3%A0%20Vu%20All%20Over%20Again%20Image_8.12.21-1.png" alt="Deja Vu All Over Again" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #003c63;"><em>California’s well-intentioned “clean energy” policies are only just starting to bear the first of the bitter fruits of unanticipated consequences we expect for the state’s long-suffering electricity consumers, who are paying more for less reliable power. This is not how it was supposed to work, not in one of the world’s most advanced economies. What in the world is going on? Today, we outline what is going wrong in California as it suffers through one of the worst policy-induced mistakes I have seen in energy in my investment career. We also examine the investment opportunities that are likely to spring from fixing the mess by reflecting on a past ill-designed (but well-intentioned) “green energy” policy: the ethanol mandate of 2005. The takeaway? Think – and invest - carefully. Reality may end up being quite different from what is advertised and broadly expected.</em></span></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Fd%C3%A9j%C3%A0-vu-all-over-again&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> energy Thu, 12 Aug 2021 20:29:21 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/d%C3%A9j%C3%A0-vu-all-over-again 2021-08-12T20:29:21Z The Real Bond King https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-real-bond-king <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-real-bond-king" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/The%20Real%20Bond%20King.png" alt="The Real Bond King" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #003c63;"><em>The inflation versus deflation debate is one of the most important of our time to the financial markets. It impacts interest rates, which are the key to valuing all financial assets. So – with no exaggeration – this is literally a multi-trillion-dollar question. But who has the answer? With so much riding on it, we take comfort from our long relationships with astute observers whose opinions and insights we have grown to trust. In our opinion, the real bond king is Dr. Lacy Hunt. His views, which are summarized below, are that current fears about inflation are overdone. We have always been confident believers that, in any market environment – no matter how uncertain - there is a profitable way forward for those that truly understand the fundamentals. It’s our opinion that Dr. Hunt understands these fundamentals better than anyone.</em></span></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-real-bond-king" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/The%20Real%20Bond%20King.png" alt="The Real Bond King" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #003c63;"><em>The inflation versus deflation debate is one of the most important of our time to the financial markets. It impacts interest rates, which are the key to valuing all financial assets. So – with no exaggeration – this is literally a multi-trillion-dollar question. But who has the answer? With so much riding on it, we take comfort from our long relationships with astute observers whose opinions and insights we have grown to trust. In our opinion, the real bond king is Dr. Lacy Hunt. His views, which are summarized below, are that current fears about inflation are overdone. We have always been confident believers that, in any market environment – no matter how uncertain - there is a profitable way forward for those that truly understand the fundamentals. It’s our opinion that Dr. Hunt understands these fundamentals better than anyone.</em></span></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Fthe-real-bond-king&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> Bonds inflation deflation Thu, 01 Jul 2021 18:20:57 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-real-bond-king 2021-07-01T18:20:57Z The Cobra Effect and the Power of Incentives https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-cobra-effect-and-the-power-of-incentives <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-cobra-effect-and-the-power-of-incentives" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/The%20Cobra%20Effect.png" alt="The Cobra Effect and the Power of Incentives" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #003c63;"><em>Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s business partner at Berkshire Hathaway, argues that one of the world’s most powerful forces is that of incentives. I think he is right. Today I want to talk about how our policy makers are trying to change incentives, and how these changes might end up leading to very different outcomes than the ones our policy makers are hoping for. While these are shaping up to be challenging times for investors, we think that both our internal investment research and our estate and tax planning expertise have never been more valuable tools to help our clients navigate a changing world.</em></span></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-cobra-effect-and-the-power-of-incentives" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/The%20Cobra%20Effect.png" alt="The Cobra Effect and the Power of Incentives" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #003c63;"><em>Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s business partner at Berkshire Hathaway, argues that one of the world’s most powerful forces is that of incentives. I think he is right. Today I want to talk about how our policy makers are trying to change incentives, and how these changes might end up leading to very different outcomes than the ones our policy makers are hoping for. While these are shaping up to be challenging times for investors, we think that both our internal investment research and our estate and tax planning expertise have never been more valuable tools to help our clients navigate a changing world.</em></span></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Fthe-cobra-effect-and-the-power-of-incentives&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> Regulation law changes Central Banking Tax Thu, 03 Jun 2021 19:50:28 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/the-cobra-effect-and-the-power-of-incentives 2021-06-03T19:50:28Z Che Guevara, Central Banker https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/cheguevaracentralbanker <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/cheguevaracentralbanker" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/Che%20Guevara,%20Central%20Banker.png" alt="Che Guevara, Central Banker" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #003c63;"><em>Clear economic incentives drive superior economic outcomes. To me, this means less government intervention and meddling. Meddling in the monetary system has been rebranded as the more sophisticated “central banking.” But central banking has merely become the unlimited protection of weaker debts – at all costs. Overindebtedness is the problem. Commodities are the solution. </em></span></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/cheguevaracentralbanker" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/Che%20Guevara,%20Central%20Banker.png" alt="Che Guevara, Central Banker" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #003c63;"><em>Clear economic incentives drive superior economic outcomes. To me, this means less government intervention and meddling. Meddling in the monetary system has been rebranded as the more sophisticated “central banking.” But central banking has merely become the unlimited protection of weaker debts – at all costs. Overindebtedness is the problem. Commodities are the solution. </em></span></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Fcheguevaracentralbanker&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> Commodities Commodity Central Banking Thu, 13 May 2021 17:04:36 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/cheguevaracentralbanker 2021-05-13T17:04:36Z The Simple Power of a Causal Framework https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/thesimplepowerofacausalframework <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/thesimplepowerofacausalframework" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/The%20Simple%20Power%20of%20a%20Causal%20Framework.png" alt="The Simple Power of a Causal Framework" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><em><span style="color: #003c63;">Successful investing doesn’t have to be complex. Sometimes the simplest insights can be the most powerful – if you have the conviction to follow them. We derive our conviction from our framework, built over many years, for how the world works.</span></em></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/thesimplepowerofacausalframework" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/The%20Simple%20Power%20of%20a%20Causal%20Framework.png" alt="The Simple Power of a Causal Framework" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><em><span style="color: #003c63;">Successful investing doesn’t have to be complex. Sometimes the simplest insights can be the most powerful – if you have the conviction to follow them. We derive our conviction from our framework, built over many years, for how the world works.</span></em></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Fthesimplepowerofacausalframework&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> Gold Cycles Commodities Commodity supply & demand Steel Thu, 08 Apr 2021 21:07:06 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/thesimplepowerofacausalframework 2021-04-08T21:07:06Z Chokepoint https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/chokepoint <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/chokepoint" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/Chokepoint.png" alt="Chokepoint" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #015289;"><em>Chief Conclusion: We believe that investors can best reach their goals through the ownership of a well-diversified portfolio, held patiently. This requires understanding the truism that a diversified portfolio means that while some assets are rising, others are falling. It is this diversity in the pattern of returns that can promote a smoother long-term return and encourage investors to stay fully invested and overcome the chokepoints that would threaten this discipline.</em></span><em style="color: #003c63; background-color: transparent;"></em></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/chokepoint" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/Chokepoint.png" alt="Chokepoint" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #015289;"><em>Chief Conclusion: We believe that investors can best reach their goals through the ownership of a well-diversified portfolio, held patiently. This requires understanding the truism that a diversified portfolio means that while some assets are rising, others are falling. It is this diversity in the pattern of returns that can promote a smoother long-term return and encourage investors to stay fully invested and overcome the chokepoints that would threaten this discipline.</em></span><em style="color: #003c63; background-color: transparent;"></em></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Fchokepoint&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> Bonds Greece Risk Thinking About the Future Diversification Thu, 04 Mar 2021 20:28:26 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/chokepoint 2021-03-04T20:28:26Z Field of Dreams https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/fieldofdreams <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/fieldofdreams" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/Field%20of%20Dreams%20%281%29-1.png" alt="Field of Dreamns" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #015289;"><em>Our investment framework has gold as the leading indicator and driver of higher commodities. In today’s “Trends and Tail Risks” we outline why we believe that this is bullish for all commodities, and furthermore, why we see a compelling opportunity right now in the corn market. Finally, we outline why we think that the corn market – the biggest in agriculture – is in a new bull market and what that means for other markets as well. We believe that events underway create a rich new idea set for our research team to analyze.</em></span><br><em style="color: #003c63; background-color: transparent;"></em></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/fieldofdreams" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/Field%20of%20Dreams%20%281%29-1.png" alt="Field of Dreamns" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #015289;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><span style="color: #015289;"><em>Our investment framework has gold as the leading indicator and driver of higher commodities. In today’s “Trends and Tail Risks” we outline why we believe that this is bullish for all commodities, and furthermore, why we see a compelling opportunity right now in the corn market. Finally, we outline why we think that the corn market – the biggest in agriculture – is in a new bull market and what that means for other markets as well. We believe that events underway create a rich new idea set for our research team to analyze.</em></span><br><em style="color: #003c63; background-color: transparent;"></em></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Ffieldofdreams&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> Gold Price of Gold Commodities Commodity corn Thu, 04 Feb 2021 20:35:49 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/fieldofdreams 2021-02-04T20:35:49Z Real Estate Software Eats the World? https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/realestatesoftwareeatstheworld <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/realestatesoftwareeatstheworld" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/TTR_Real%20Estate%20Software%20eats%20the%20world_.png" alt="Real Estate Software Eats the World?" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #003c63;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><em><span style="color: #003c63;">Our research team believes it has identified a rare and powerful investment opportunity in real estate software to potentially profit from the multi-year real estate upcycle it expects to see.</span></em><br><em style="color: #003c63; background-color: transparent;"></em></p> <div class="hs-featured-image-wrapper"> <a href="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/realestatesoftwareeatstheworld" title="" class="hs-featured-image-link"> <img src="https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/hubfs/TTR_Real%20Estate%20Software%20eats%20the%20world_.png" alt="Real Estate Software Eats the World?" class="hs-featured-image" style="width:auto !important; max-width:50%; float:left; margin:0 15px 15px 0;"> </a> </div> <h3><span style="color: #003c63;"><strong><span style="font-family: Raleway; font-size: 22px; text-transform: uppercase; background-color: transparent;">CHIEF CONCLUSION</span></strong></span></h3> <p><em><span style="color: #003c63;">Our research team believes it has identified a rare and powerful investment opportunity in real estate software to potentially profit from the multi-year real estate upcycle it expects to see.</span></em><br><em style="color: #003c63; background-color: transparent;"></em></p> <img src="https://track.hubspot.com/__ptq.gif?a=4388425&amp;k=14&amp;r=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%2Ftrends-tail-risks%2Frealestatesoftwareeatstheworld&amp;bu=https%253A%252F%252Fblog.capitalwealthadvisors.com%252Ftrends-tail-risks&amp;bvt=rss" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="min-height:1px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!important;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!important;padding-left:0!important; "> technology real estate software Thu, 10 Dec 2020 21:49:03 GMT lewis@cwafgi.com (Lewis Johnson) https://blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks/realestatesoftwareeatstheworld 2020-12-10T21:49:03Z