TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Prices Allocate Resources

POSTED ON June 25th - POSTED IN Prices Allocate Resources, Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - Prices are everywhere.  We pay prices when we want to buy things such as groceries, cars, houses, stocks and bonds.  But what else should we consider with respect to prices?  Prices are also the most[…]

Simplicity

POSTED ON June 19th - POSTED IN Credit, Gold, Relative Value of Gold (and Credit)

By Lewis Johnson - “You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.” Albert Einstein Sometimes it’s very difficult to get down to the simple fundamental truths that underlie even[…]

From the Analyst's Toolkit: Replacement Cost Valuation

POSTED ON June 11th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Investing is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty.  We use a variety of tools to minimize uncertainty and increase the odds that our investments are successful.  One of the most important[…]

Ghosts of Invergordon?

POSTED ON June 4th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Mark Twain once said, "History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme."  This week we examine a precedent from 1931 for clues to the political debate underway now in Europe. We consider whether[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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