TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Real Bond King

POSTED ON July 1st - POSTED IN Bonds, inflation, deflation

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The inflation versus deflation debate is one of the most important of our time to the financial markets. It impacts interest rates, which are the key to valuing all financial assets.[…]

The Cobra Effect and the Power of Incentives

POSTED ON June 3rd - POSTED IN Regulation, law changes, Central Banking, Tax

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s business partner at Berkshire Hathaway, argues that one of the world’s most powerful forces is that of incentives. I think he is right. Today I want[…]

Che Guevara, Central Banker

POSTED ON May 13th - POSTED IN Commodities, Commodity, Central Banking

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Clear economic incentives drive superior economic outcomes. To me, this means less government intervention and meddling. Meddling in the monetary system has been rebranded as the[…]

The Simple Power of a Causal Framework

POSTED ON April 8th - POSTED IN Gold, Cycles, Commodities, Commodity, supply & demand, Steel

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Successful investing doesn’t have to be complex. Sometimes the simplest insights can be the most powerful – if you have the conviction to follow them. We derive our conviction from[…]

Chokepoint

POSTED ON March 4th - POSTED IN Bonds, Greece, Risk, Thinking About the Future, Diversification

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Chief Conclusion: We believe that investors can best reach their goals through the ownership of a well-diversified portfolio, held patiently. This requires understanding the truism[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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