TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Che Guevara, Central Banker

POSTED ON May 13th - POSTED IN Commodities, Commodity, Central Banking

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Clear economic incentives drive superior economic outcomes. To me, this means less government intervention and meddling. Meddling in the monetary system has been rebranded as the[…]

The Simple Power of a Causal Framework

POSTED ON April 8th - POSTED IN Gold, Cycles, Commodities, Commodity, supply & demand, Steel

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Successful investing doesn’t have to be complex. Sometimes the simplest insights can be the most powerful – if you have the conviction to follow them. We derive our conviction from[…]

Chokepoint

POSTED ON March 4th - POSTED IN Bonds, Greece, Risk, Thinking About the Future, Diversification

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Chief Conclusion: We believe that investors can best reach their goals through the ownership of a well-diversified portfolio, held patiently. This requires understanding the truism[…]

Field of Dreams

POSTED ON February 4th - POSTED IN Gold, Price of Gold, Commodities, Commodity, corn

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Our investment framework has gold as the leading indicator and driver of higher commodities. In today’s “Trends and Tail Risks” we outline why we believe that this is bullish for all[…]

Real Estate Software Eats the World?

POSTED ON December 10th - POSTED IN technology, real estate, software

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Our research team believes it has identified a rare and powerful investment opportunity in real estate software to potentially profit from the multi-year real estate upcycle it[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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