TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Bizarro World of Chinese Real Estate

POSTED ON November 5th - POSTED IN Credit, Risk, yield curve, trends

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION There are two reasons why you should care about the ongoing meltdown of China’s overindebted property developers. The first is that, in my opinion, these debt-driven companies are at[…]

Chokepoint

POSTED ON March 4th - POSTED IN Bonds, Greece, Risk, Thinking About the Future, Diversification

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Chief Conclusion: We believe that investors can best reach their goals through the ownership of a well-diversified portfolio, held patiently. This requires understanding the truism[…]

Driving by Looking at the Rear-View Mirror

POSTED ON September 5th - POSTED IN Risk, Thinking About the Future, yield curve

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION No thinking person who gets behind the wheel of a car would ever dream of navigating by looking in the rear-view mirror. Yet, it seems that is exactly how the U.S. Federal Reserve is[…]

Everybody Has a Plan 'Til They Get Punched in the Face

POSTED ON August 22nd - POSTED IN Bonds, Gold, Risk

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Mike Tyson says that everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. That’s when life gets real and many plans fail. Volatile markets just punched many investors in the[…]

Risk Is Not What They Tell You It Is

POSTED ON August 8th - POSTED IN Bonds, Risk

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Sometimes the strength of the whole can be dependent upon what may seem an unimportant or even paradoxical piece. Investing can be like that too. In our opinion, the best portfolios[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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