TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Navigating Confused Seas

POSTED ON December 15th - POSTED IN Risk, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion As next year progresses, investors may find the markets tossed by the confused seas of conflicting cycles: the upcycle of the 40 month inventory cycle and the looming downcycle of[…]

The Potential Rise of Systematic Risk?

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The 54% drop in the share price of Deutsche Bank (DB) in the last year raises questions about the health of our financial system. Shareholders at many other thinly capitalized[…]

World Beating Performance in Silver

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Notable outperformance by silver equities suggests we are just at the beginning of a new and extended precious metals upcycle. Overindebtedness is driving this bull market..

Greece: War of Creditors vs. Debtors

POSTED ON July 15th - POSTED IN Risk

By Lewis Johnson - It seems as if I have been writing about Greece forever! But events there do continue to demand attention. Make no mistake: Greece is on the front lines of global over-indebtedness which is why it’s[…]

Contagion: Fog of War?

POSTED ON July 8th - POSTED IN Risk, Contagion

By Lewis Johnson - Writing these weekly research pieces is often a revealing journey for me. I start by surveying the world for the most noteworthy events about which I am concerned. As I winnow and sift my thinking, I[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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