TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Bizarro World of Chinese Real Estate

POSTED ON November 5th - POSTED IN Credit, Risk, yield curve, trends

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION There are two reasons why you should care about the ongoing meltdown of China’s overindebted property developers. The first is that, in my opinion, these debt-driven companies are at[…]

Markets Become Dangerous When Investors Become Gullible

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Prolonged market rallies act as a reinforcing mechanism to investors reaching for that extra yield without pausing to consider the risk associated with their actions. By no means is[…]

Volatility Makes a Comeback

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The most pressing problem that we attempt to solve for our clients is how to grow their hard-won savings thoughtfully. Money only grows when it takes risk – but what risks to take?[…]

Feed the Ducks While They Are Quacking: Time to Reduce Lower Quality Bond Positions

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Clients will begin to see a thoughtful winnowing of our selected holdings in corporate bonds rated less than investment grade. The relentless search for yield has resulted in a[…]

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bond

POSTED ON November 30th - POSTED IN Bonds, Credit

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Evidence continues to accumulate globally that the secular bull market in bonds is alive and well. We discuss the most recent data that includes Europe’s first negative yielding[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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