TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Credit Watching: Exter's Inverted Pyramid At Work

POSTED ON May 31st - POSTED IN Credit

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion When danger rears its head, the mass of capital flees riskier assets to crowd into the much smaller quantity of safer assets, which drives up their price. Worsening credit quality,[…]

Is Low Volatility Sustainable with Populists in Power?

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Populism’s explosive growth is likely sowing the seeds for dramatic change in the markets. Every day we see evidence of this in the news and in the markets. My own belief and concern[…]

The Potential Rise of Systematic Risk?

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The 54% drop in the share price of Deutsche Bank (DB) in the last year raises questions about the health of our financial system. Shareholders at many other thinly capitalized[…]

The Message of Gold

POSTED ON March 23rd - POSTED IN Credit, Gold, Relative Value of Gold (and Credit)

By Lewis Johnson - Simplicity should be a constant goal in investing. Note the key word: goal. Sadly it’s a daunting effort to reach a simple understanding of our increasingly complex financial world. Often it takes[…]

Fed Rate Hikes are a Mistake

POSTED ON February 24th - POSTED IN Credit

By Lewis Johnson - The Fed made a mistake in raising interest rates. The consequences of this mistake could be far-reaching. Frequent readers know that I strive to follow the advice of Bismarck and study history to[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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