By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion When danger rears its head, the mass of capital flees riskier assets to crowd into the much smaller quantity of safer assets, which drives up their price. Worsening credit quality,[…]
POSTED ON
May 18th
- POSTED IN
Cycles
By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We noted two weeks ago that our trusted indicators in the steel markets had signaled that the inventory cycle was turning lower. We expect higher-quality, longer-dated bonds to[…]
POSTED ON
May 4th
- POSTED IN
Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World,
Cycles,
Indicators,
Thinking About the Future
By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Key leading indicators in the commodity markets support our expectation for a mid 2017 peak in the inventory cycle. Steel offers the best insight into this cycle and the slowdown[…]