TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Changes in the Rules of the Game

POSTED ON April 16th - POSTED IN Bonds, Gold, Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION In complex times, it’s important to focus.  From where I sit, it seems that there are two big things going on in global markets right now.  The first is a cyclical downturn of[…]

The Real March Madness

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The Fed can’t print a vaccine for coronavirus COVID-19, but it can attempt to ease market distress by reversing the spike in real interest rates that took place when the Fed allowed[…]

Risk Management in an Uncertain World: Asset Allocation 1 - Timing Fairy 0

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Last week the equity market suffered the fastest drop ever from an all-time high.  We believe that the violence of this collapse makes a strong case for professional risk management[…]

Tech Valuations Party Like It's 1999

POSTED ON February 20th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future, technology

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION It should come as no surprise to our long-term readers that, when equity valuations become extended in our view, our research team grows more cautious.  Our team finds itself at such[…]

3 Keys to Sell Discipline

POSTED ON February 6th - POSTED IN masters of investing

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Buying an investment may be only half the battle.  What about when to sell?  We think the ability to sell well is one of the rarest and most valuable skills in investing.  Our[…]

Lewis Johnson
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Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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