TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Unexpected Change

By Lewis Johnson - The game of poker shares many similarities with investing.  They are both odds driven endeavors where it pays to be logical.  The margin of victory is often slim!  If you play the game of poker long[…]

Blockbuster Results

POSTED ON March 18th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Bottom Up Analysis, Triangulation

By Lewis Johnson - I love movies.  My favorite movies combine great actors, a riveting story line, stunning imagery and a moving musical score to create a memorable experience.  Ultimately there must be one individual[…]

The Illusion of Attention

POSTED ON March 11th - POSTED IN Risk

By Lewis Johnson - What do we know?  And how can we be sure that we really know what we think we know?  What is the possibility that unseen and therefore unrecognized errors cloud our decisions – especially in the[…]

Contango Fandango

POSTED ON March 4th - POSTED IN Bottom Up Analysis, Prices Allocate Resources

By Lewis Johnson - This week I read Ghost Boy, the autobiography of a young man, Martin Pistorius, who contracted a rare disease that left him unable to move or communicate for nine years.  Trapped in his own mind he[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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