TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Credit Watching: Exter's Inverted Pyramid At Work

POSTED ON May 31st - POSTED IN Credit

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion When danger rears its head, the mass of capital flees riskier assets to crowd into the much smaller quantity of safer assets, which drives up their price.  Worsening credit quality,[…]

The Inventory Cycle Turns Down (Part Two)

POSTED ON May 18th - POSTED IN Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We noted two weeks ago that our trusted indicators in the steel markets had signaled that the inventory cycle was turning lower.  We expect higher-quality, longer-dated bonds to[…]

Preparing for the Peak of the Inventory Cycle

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Key leading indicators in the commodity markets support our expectation for a mid 2017 peak in the inventory cycle.  Steel offers the best insight into this cycle and the slowdown[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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