TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

An Investment Lesson from Homer's Odyssey

POSTED ON March 23rd - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Bottom Up Analysis, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Investors must protect themselves from the Siren song of deceptively important “news.”  While news can change daily, the value of a company’s assets and business change only[…]

Whether to Invest with the Weather

POSTED ON August 5th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Bottom Up Analysis, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - As an investor the most important decision I make every day is what to ignore.  After all, it’s a big wide world with literally tens of thousands of financial securities in it: stocks, bonds and[…]

Great Expectations

POSTED ON June 24th - POSTED IN Bottom Up Analysis, Commodity, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Charles Dickens was one of those rare and durable authors who was acclaimed in his own time and whose work is still fresh to this day.   Dickens was widely honored as a true literary genius, creating[…]

Eyes on the Prize

By Lewis Johnson - The story of struggle, of hard work in a time of great adversity which leads through travail to eventual triumph, is an eternal human story.  In all cultures and in all languages we can find examples[…]

"Seeing the Ball" Clearly: The Value of a Cogent and Controversial Narrative

By Lewis Johnson - Baseball is back!  With the return of April and the rainy season here in south Florida, baseball has returned.  As thoughts turn to baseball, I am reminded of the epic 1991 season for the Atlanta[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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