TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Not Even Wrong

POSTED ON December 27th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The Fed is overtightening. It is advancing interest rates at a faster pace than that currently priced into the market. The stock market’s recent plunge, the worst December[…]

Skate Where the Puck's Going, Not Where It's Been

POSTED ON December 13th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Markets are rightly focused on the future, on where the puck is going, not on where the puck has been.  We try to direct our portfolios to where the puck is going through our[…]

The Difference Between Brains and a Bull Market

POSTED ON November 29th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Coach Nick Saban’s success at the University of Alabama shows that disciplined processes win championships. In our opinion, investing is no different.  Investment returns are[…]

Up the Escalator, Down the Elevator

POSTED ON November 15th - POSTED IN Cycles, Commodities, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The lightning fast 30% collapse in crude oil in recent days is a stark reminder of one market truism: markets go up the escalator and down the elevator.  If your goal is to avoid[…]

Rhyming History

POSTED ON November 1st - POSTED IN Cycles, yield curve

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION "History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain Financial markets look ahead. Wait for the news and you may fall behind the biggest moves. It appears we are now very deep[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

Email Me!

Newsletter Signup

Featured On