TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Real March Madness

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The Fed can’t print a vaccine for coronavirus COVID-19, but it can attempt to ease market distress by reversing the spike in real interest rates that took place when the Fed allowed[…]

Risk Management in an Uncertain World: Asset Allocation 1 - Timing Fairy 0

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Last week the equity market suffered the fastest drop ever from an all-time high.  We believe that the violence of this collapse makes a strong case for professional risk management[…]

Get Long the Hurricane

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION In my opinion, the single toughest challenge in investing is to creatively think about risk management. We seek to balance our goals for long-term growth with the risks we face on[…]

Liquidity Moves Markets

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The Fed is at it again! Not content with its nearly successful attempt six months ago to break the financial world, the Fed is once again fiddling while interest rates burn. Today we[…]

Animal Spirits

POSTED ON June 13th - POSTED IN Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Are tariff announcements breaking the market’s “animal spirits” that are necessary for the health of a historically extended bull market in equities?  We examine some important[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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