TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Most Powerful Research Tool is a Great Network

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Wouldn’t it be nice to have the confidence that you could pick up the phone and get a straight answer from a trusted expert?  We have been working for our entire career to make that[…]

Potash: A Study in Patience

POSTED ON December 14th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We have watched and waited for a decade for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) to become cheap enough to purchase again.  A few days ago, we finally pulled the trigger and decided to[…]

Hippocratic Investing: First Do No Harm

POSTED ON April 20th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Cycles, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Our level of caution varies depending on where we are in the cycle in terms of time and valuation. The discipline of replacement cost analysis helps us in this endeavor. 

An Investment Lesson from Homer's Odyssey

POSTED ON March 23rd - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Bottom Up Analysis, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Investors must protect themselves from the Siren song of deceptively important “news.”  While news can change daily, the value of a company’s assets and business change only[…]

Old Friends: Kirby Corporation (KEX)

POSTED ON August 10th - POSTED IN Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We believe that the share price of Kirby Corporation (KEX) is undervalued and offers patient investors attractive returns and limited risk.

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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