TRENDS & TAIL RISKS

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Price is What You Pay; Value is What you Get

By Lewis Johnson | July 09, 2014

Benjamin GrahamAs value investors we sometimes find ourselves in the most obscure parts of the market. We end up there by design, because we are constantly seeking to limit downside risk by investing in securities that are the most undervalued. After many years of experience we have become accustomed to tuning out much of the rhetoric that accompanies low valuations: controversy, fear, and doubt about near term prospects. Such sentiment should be expected and is often a necessary prerequisite for how these securities came to be undervalued in the first place. But how do we discern a compelling opportunity from just another broken story? Valuation is our trusted guide. Our valuation work helps us drive our own proprietary view of what a security is worth. This week’s Trends and Tail Risks outlines how valuation gives us confidence to see opportunity where others do not.

The first step in our valuation process typically begins with a replacement cost analysis to breakdown a company into its constituent parts such as raw material production, factories, stakes in other companies, and any other hidden assets. We focus first on the unit of production. What exactly does the company produce? It may be a ton of steel, a megawatt of electricity, or a loaf of bread. We want to see rising units of production per outstanding share. This is pivotal evidence that the management team is growing its earnings power over time. If management is growing capacity per share inexpensively, such as through buying competitors at a fraction of replacement cost, then we know we have found a team with whom we want to invest. Earnings drive stocks but remember that earnings are a multiplicative function of two things: 1.) production per share times 2.) profit margin per unit of production. Management’s capital allocation drives production per share, but it’s the cycle that drives profit margins.

Once we have the capacity numbers for each business line we value the company as a whole. We ask ourselves a few important questions such as ‘what would it cost to replace the company’s entire asset base?’ and ‘would it be rational to do so?’ We analyze the company and its sector globally to differentiate the low cost producers from the high cost producers.

We look at a company that is down on its luck and ask ourselves how it came to be in that position. We tend to get very excited when we find through our research that the company’s setback is a temporary, cyclical downturn. In many cases a company is simply suffering from an adverse environment. One example might find a company struggling with excess capacity from a supply glut that has driven down the profitability of a sector below sustainable levels. Another example would find the economics of a sector temporarily depressed as excess inventories get worked down, bringing supply and demand into balance once again and restoring the sector’s economics. Experience has taught us that the return of a more normal operating environment can lead to dramatic earnings acceleration if management has dramatically increased capacity per share. This is why we disaggregate capacity per share from margin per unit of production.

The bottom line for us is that it’s our own valuation analysis that drives our interest in downtrodden sectors off the beaten path. We are prepared to look through temporary difficulty for undervalued stocks which are low cost producers – especially when these companies have grown production per share through trying times. Experience has taught us that sometimes we may find these securities in the strangest nooks and crannies of the market. But at all times we try to let the numbers be our guide, remembering as Ben Graham said that ‘Price is what you pay, value is what you get.’ •

 

 

CWA Asset Management Group, LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser, doing business as Capital Wealth Advisors (“CWA”) and as blueharbor wealth advisors.  This material is for informational purposes only, as of the date indicated, is not complete, and is subject to change. Additional information is available upon request. Any opinions expressed herein represent current opinions as of the date of publication only and may change based on market or other conditions.  This material may contain assumptions that are “forward-looking statements,” which are based on certain assumptions of future events. Actual events are difficult to predict and may differ from those assumed. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will materialize or that actual results will not be materially different from those described here.   Certain information herein has been provided by and/or is based on third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified, and CWA is not responsible for third-party errors.  No representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of information or opinions herein and CWA assumes no obligation to update or revise such information or opinions.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies.  All investments involve risk, including risk of loss and are not guaranteed.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  There can be no guarantee that CWA will achieve any specific investment objective or level of performance.  CWA does not offer legal or tax advice.  Please consult your investment or tax professional for additional information concerning your specific situation.  Specific companies, industries or securities described are meant to be illustrative of investment style only. Additional information regarding CWA including fees, expenses, and risks of investment, is contained in CWA’s investment advisory agreement, its Form ADV, Form CRS and related disclosure documents and should be reviewed carefully. CWA’s ADV 2A and Form CRS can be accessed via https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/.
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Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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