TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Illusion of Attention

POSTED ON March 11th - POSTED IN Risk

By Lewis Johnson - What do we know? And how can we be sure that we really know what we think we know? What is the possibility that unseen and therefore unrecognized errors cloud our decisions – especially in the[…]

Contango Fandango

POSTED ON March 4th - POSTED IN Prices Allocate Resources, Bottom Up Analysis

By Lewis Johnson - This week I read Ghost Boy, the autobiography of a young man, Martin Pistorius, who contracted a rare disease that left him unable to move or communicate for nine years. Trapped in his own mind he[…]

Secular Trends Uniting?

POSTED ON February 25th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Investing is about anticipating and profiting from change. But change can be hard to spot. Often the biggest changes are the ones that are the hardest to see. Of course, it is these huge unexpected[…]

The Power of Continuous Learning

POSTED ON February 18th - POSTED IN Risk

By Lewis Johnson - History is filled with fascinating people. The most interesting of these, to me, are those who strove hard, refused to quit, and always kept learning. These people are my inspiration – not because[…]

Greece: The Bank's Problem?

POSTED ON February 11th - POSTED IN Credit

By Lewis Johnson - We have been writing frequently about the unfolding problems in Greece since we highlighted the rising political risks there beginning in May of 2014, a full nine months ago. As so often happens, the[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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