TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Lewis Johnson

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer at Capital Wealth Advisors and author of Trends & Tail Risks.
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Recent Posts

Simplicity

POSTED ON June 19th - POSTED IN Credit, Gold, Relative Value of Gold (and Credit)

By Lewis Johnson - “You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.” Albert Einstein Sometimes it’s very difficult to get down to the simple fundamental truths that underlie even[…]

From the Analyst's Toolkit: Replacement Cost Valuation

POSTED ON June 11th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Investing is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty.  We use a variety of tools to minimize uncertainty and increase the odds that our investments are successful.  One of the most important[…]

Ghosts of Invergordon?

POSTED ON June 4th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Mark Twain once said, "History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme."  This week we examine a precedent from 1931 for clues to the political debate underway now in Europe. We consider whether[…]

Making Volatility our Friend: Trading the Kitchin Cycle

POSTED ON May 28th - POSTED IN Cycles, Kitchin Cycle

By Lewis Johnson - Cycles and their changing phases are everywhere around us.  The twenty-four hour daily cycle comprises the opposites of day and night.  The seasons transition from the cool of winter to the opposite[…]

Big Problems Start Small

POSTED ON May 21st - POSTED IN Bond Market, Greece

By Lewis Johnson - Last week the Greek bond market took a beating after almost two full years of constant improvement.  This week’s Trends and Tail Risks explains why you should care and what we are watching for next. […]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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