TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Simple Power of a Causal Framework

POSTED ON April 8th - POSTED IN Gold, Cycles, Commodities, Commodity, supply & demand, Steel

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Successful investing doesn’t have to be complex. Sometimes the simplest insights can be the most powerful – if you have the conviction to follow them. We derive our conviction from[…]

Field of Dreams

POSTED ON February 4th - POSTED IN Gold, Price of Gold, Commodities, Commodity, corn

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Our investment framework has gold as the leading indicator and driver of higher commodities. In today’s “Trends and Tail Risks” we outline why we believe that this is bullish for all[…]

Changes in the Rules of the Game

POSTED ON April 16th - POSTED IN Bonds, Gold, Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION In complex times, it’s important to focus.  From where I sit, it seems that there are two big things going on in global markets right now.  The first is a cyclical downturn of[…]

Real Money

POSTED ON October 31st - POSTED IN Gold, Relative Value of Gold (and Credit)

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION In the last four years, there has been an $9.1 trillion increase in negative yielding debt.  The total now is $12.8 trillion.  What broader impacts has this driven in our markets –[…]

Everybody Has a Plan 'Til They Get Punched in the Face

POSTED ON August 22nd - POSTED IN Bonds, Gold, Risk

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Mike Tyson says that everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. That’s when life gets real and many plans fail. Volatile markets just punched many investors in the[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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