TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Bizarro World of Chinese Real Estate

POSTED ON November 5th - POSTED IN Credit, Risk, yield curve, trends

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION There are two reasons why you should care about the ongoing meltdown of China’s overindebted property developers. The first is that, in my opinion, these debt-driven companies are at[…]

Buy Your Winter Coat in the Summer – When it’s on Sale!

POSTED ON September 2nd - POSTED IN yield curve, interest rates, liquidity, Central Banking

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Investments that could be considered “safe” have changed over time. One key driver of this change is how our financial authorities, in particular the world’s central bankers, have[…]

Where We Are in the Cycle: Revisiting Asset Allocation & Indicators

POSTED ON October 15th - POSTED IN yield curve, yields

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Today we take a brief look back at the message of our trusted indicators, in particular the insight of the yield curve. Our goal is to thoughtfully inquire into three questions.[…]

Next Season's Harvest

POSTED ON September 19th - POSTED IN yield curve, interest rates

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The U.S. Federal Reserve met this week to consider its interest rate policies. The market seems to be increasingly pricing in that a too-slow Fed is falling further behind the curve,[…]

Driving by Looking at the Rear-View Mirror

POSTED ON September 5th - POSTED IN Risk, Thinking About the Future, yield curve

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION No thinking person who gets behind the wheel of a car would ever dream of navigating by looking in the rear-view mirror. Yet, it seems that is exactly how the U.S. Federal Reserve is[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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