TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Price is what you pay; value is what you get

POSTED ON July 9th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Triangulation

By Lewis Johnson - As value investors we sometimes find ourselves in the most obscure parts of the market. We end up there by design, because we are constantly seeking to limit downside risk by investing in securities[…]

The Most Important Question in Investing Right Now

POSTED ON July 2nd - POSTED IN Gold, Price of Gold

By Lewis Johnson - Last week we explored commodity prices to illustrate simply how supply and demand interact with prices to drive real responses in the economy.  Prices make things happen!  There is a deeper truth,[…]

Prices Allocate Resources

POSTED ON June 25th - POSTED IN Prices Allocate Resources, Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - Prices are everywhere.  We pay prices when we want to buy things such as groceries, cars, houses, stocks and bonds.  But what else should we consider with respect to prices?  Prices are also the most[…]

Simplicity

POSTED ON June 19th - POSTED IN Credit, Gold, Relative Value of Gold (and Credit)

By Lewis Johnson - “You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.” Albert Einstein Sometimes it’s very difficult to get down to the simple fundamental truths that underlie even[…]

From the Analyst's Toolkit: Replacement Cost Valuation

POSTED ON June 11th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - Investing is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty.  We use a variety of tools to minimize uncertainty and increase the odds that our investments are successful.  One of the most important[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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