TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Our Bond Strategy: The Power of Duration

POSTED ON October 8th - POSTED IN Bonds, Credit, Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World, Risk

By Lewis Johnson - “The holy passion of Friendship is of so sweet and steady and loyal and enduring a nature that it will last through a whole lifetime, if not asked to lend money.”

Revisiting the Inventory Cycle

POSTED ON October 1st - POSTED IN Prices Allocate Resources, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”

The Dark Side of China?

POSTED ON September 24th - POSTED IN Credit

By Lewis Johnson - “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.”

Unsustainable Steel Premiums

POSTED ON September 3rd - POSTED IN Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Cycles are a prominent factor in much of our research on commodity driven companies. This is no accident. Commodity markets are always seeking balance between the fundamental forces of supply and[…]

Sir Isaac Newton: Visionary Scientist, Lousy Investor

POSTED ON August 27th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost, Risk

By Lewis Johnson - "I can calculate the movement of stars but not the madness of men."

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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