TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Markets Become Dangerous When Investors Become Gullible

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Prolonged market rallies act as a reinforcing mechanism to investors reaching for that extra yield without pausing to consider the risk associated with their actions.  By no means is[…]

Something's Gotta Give: High Political Uncertainty vs. Low Financial Uncertainty

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Rising political risks combined with worsening credit quality and central bank tightening are among the most important themes for investors to consider when making capital allocation[…]

The Blind Men and the Elephant: De-Globalization Accelerates as Tariffs Rise

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Steel tariffs, and those on aluminum too, are much in the headlines.  We maintain our long-held bullishness on the U.S. steel sector for reasons that have nothing to do with tariffs,[…]

The Humiliation Machine: Take the Risks That You Get Paid to Take

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The market is a humiliation machine.  When you are being the most rational, the market makes you look the most stupid.  This is not a bug, it’s a feature.  Why?  Because the rational[…]

Volatility Makes a Comeback

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The most pressing problem that we attempt to solve for our clients is how to grow their hard-won savings thoughtfully.  Money only grows when it takes risk – but what risks to take? […]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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