TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Markets Become Dangerous When Investors Become Gullible

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Prolonged market rallies act as a reinforcing mechanism to investors reaching for that extra yield without pausing to consider the risk associated with their actions.  By no means is[…]

Volatility Makes a Comeback

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The most pressing problem that we attempt to solve for our clients is how to grow their hard-won savings thoughtfully.  Money only grows when it takes risk – but what risks to take? […]

Feed the Ducks While They Are Quacking: Time to Reduce Lower Quality Bond Positions

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Clients will begin to see a thoughtful winnowing of our selected holdings in corporate bonds rated less than investment grade.  The relentless search for yield has resulted in a[…]

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bond

POSTED ON November 30th - POSTED IN Bonds, Credit

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Evidence continues to accumulate globally that the secular bull market in bonds is alive and well.  We discuss the most recent data that includes Europe’s first negative yielding[…]

Credit Watching: Exter's Inverted Pyramid At Work

POSTED ON May 31st - POSTED IN Credit

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion When danger rears its head, the mass of capital flees riskier assets to crowd into the much smaller quantity of safer assets, which drives up their price.  Worsening credit quality,[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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