TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Swimming Naked

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion A month ago, we explained George Soros’ “reflexivity” to help explain why we thought more weakness lay ahead for many emerging markets.  Since then Argentina’s currency has collapsed[…]

Avoid the Monkey Trap

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Today’s “Trends and Tail Risks” is about what happens to leadership stocks when confidence flees, and bull markets turn into bear markets, which has taken place on average every nine[…]

Old Dog, New Tricks?

POSTED ON May 17th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The world’s best investors are constantly learning, constantly trying to expand their circle of competence to make better decisions.  Today I explain a recent revelation I had when I[…]

Fearless Twenty-Six-Year Olds

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Our valuation discipline is at the heart of how we manage portfolios.  Why?  Because if you pay too much even for a good company, you can “be right” about the future and still lose[…]

The Humiliation Machine: Take the Risks That You Get Paid to Take

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The market is a humiliation machine.  When you are being the most rational, the market makes you look the most stupid.  This is not a bug, it’s a feature.  Why?  Because the rational[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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