TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

An Investment Lesson from Homer's Odyssey

POSTED ON March 23rd - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost, Bottom Up Analysis

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Investors must protect themselves from the Siren song of deceptively important “news.” While news can change daily, the value of a company’s assets and business change only slowly.[…]

Activity Does Not Equal Progress: The Value of Patience and the Importance of Valuation

POSTED ON January 12th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Indicators, Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The two most necessary preconditions for successful investing are 1.) insight and 2.) patience. One without the other will do you absolutely no good. Held patiently, a diversified[…]

Success Begins with Defense: Is This the Bottom of the Agriculture Cycle?

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Successful investing begins with the purchase of assets with limited downside, exceptional upside, and multiple ways to win. The 50% crash in agricultural commodity prices helps[…]

Whether to Invest with the Weather

POSTED ON August 5th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost, Bottom Up Analysis

By Lewis Johnson - As an investor the most important decision I make every day is what to ignore. After all, it’s a big wide world with literally tens of thousands of financial securities in it: stocks, bonds and other[…]

Successful Failure

POSTED ON June 3rd - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - There are many challenging aspects of investing. Perhaps in no other field does the oppressiveness of the unknown cast such a long shadow as over our efforts to safely shepherd capital through an[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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