TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Next Big Thing?

POSTED ON November 12th - POSTED IN Commodities, Commodity, Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Whoever said “its who you know that counts” was definitely speaking about the investment business. In a confusing world, drowning in data, how to make sense of it all and plot an[…]

Good Intentions

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Ask anyone who has invested serious time analyzing the commodity markets and you will quickly come to understand the power of supply, demand, and prices to work in harmony to create[…]

Up the Escalator, Down the Elevator

POSTED ON November 15th - POSTED IN Cycles, Commodities, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The lightning fast 30% collapse in crude oil in recent days is a stark reminder of one market truism: markets go up the escalator and down the elevator.  If your goal is to avoid[…]

The Blind Men and the Elephant: De-Globalization Accelerates as Tariffs Rise

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Steel tariffs, and those on aluminum too, are much in the headlines.  We maintain our long-held bullishness on the U.S. steel sector for reasons that have nothing to do with tariffs,[…]

Rising Steel Prices: Arbitrage at Work in the Steel Markets

POSTED ON September 6th - POSTED IN Commodities

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We believe that in the coming months we may see rising steel prices in the U.S.  The power of arbitrage, one of the strongest forces in the markets, is now set up to make this[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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