TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Up the Escalator, Down the Elevator

POSTED ON November 15th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators, Commodities

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The lightning fast 30% collapse in crude oil in recent days is a stark reminder of one market truism: markets go up the escalator and down the elevator.  If your goal is to avoid[…]

The Blind Men and the Elephant: De-Globalization Accelerates as Tariffs Rise

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Steel tariffs, and those on aluminum too, are much in the headlines.  We maintain our long-held bullishness on the U.S. steel sector for reasons that have nothing to do with tariffs,[…]

Rising Steel Prices: Arbitrage at Work in the Steel Markets

POSTED ON September 6th - POSTED IN Commodities

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We believe that in the coming months we may see rising steel prices in the U.S.  The power of arbitrage, one of the strongest forces in the markets, is now set up to make this[…]

The Rise of the Robots?

POSTED ON February 23rd - POSTED IN Commodities, Indicators, Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Robotics and automation technology improvements are reaching a critical mass. These technological advances along with bias from government policies that favor capital over labor have[…]

Bearish to Bullish: Opportunities in Steel

POSTED ON December 1st - POSTED IN Commodities, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Our bearish outlook on the steel industry in mid-2014 helped us to avoid the huge declines in steel equities, some as high as 85%, that followed in the wake of the inventory cycle[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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