TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Navigating Confused Seas

POSTED ON December 15th - POSTED IN Risk, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion As next year progresses, investors may find the markets tossed by the confused seas of conflicting cycles: the upcycle of the 40 month inventory cycle and the looming downcycle of[…]

Bearish to Bullish: Opportunities in Steel

POSTED ON December 1st - POSTED IN Cycles, Commodities

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Our bearish outlook on the steel industry in mid-2014 helped us to avoid the huge declines in steel equities, some as high as 85%, that followed in the wake of the inventory cycle[…]

Bond Weakness Is a Temporary Setback and Not the Cycle’s End

POSTED ON November 17th - POSTED IN Bonds, Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion What does last week’s election mean for the markets? The election has been positive for the equity market but negative for bonds. Are bonds through? A veritable galaxy of investment[…]

A Bull Market in Populism and De-Globalization

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We expect that the upcoming Presidential election in the U.S. may add further evidence supporting the growth of a powerful and global bull market in populism and its corollary,[…]

Oil Investing, Rockefeller Style

POSTED ON October 19th - POSTED IN Cycles, Commodities

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We continue to find value in the beaten-down oil industry. We believe that now is the time to make a targeted investment in the beleaguered oil service sector, where drilling[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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