TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Revisiting the Inventory Cycle

POSTED ON October 1st - POSTED IN Prices Allocate Resources, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”

Unsustainable Steel Premiums

POSTED ON September 3rd - POSTED IN Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Cycles are a prominent factor in much of our research on commodity driven companies. This is no accident. Commodity markets are always seeking balance between the fundamental forces of supply and[…]

Prices Allocate Resources

POSTED ON June 25th - POSTED IN Prices Allocate Resources, Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - Prices are everywhere. We pay prices when we want to buy things such as groceries, cars, houses, stocks and bonds. But what else should we consider with respect to prices? Prices are also the most[…]

Making Volatility our Friend: Trading the Kitchin Cycle

POSTED ON May 28th - POSTED IN Cycles, Kitchin Cycle

By Lewis Johnson - Cycles and their changing phases are everywhere around us. The twenty-four hour daily cycle comprises the opposites of day and night. The seasons transition from the cool of winter to the opposite[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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