TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Whether to Invest with the Weather

POSTED ON August 5th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost, Bottom Up Analysis

By Lewis Johnson - As an investor the most important decision I make every day is what to ignore. After all, it’s a big wide world with literally tens of thousands of financial securities in it: stocks, bonds and other[…]

Successful Failure

POSTED ON June 3rd - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost

By Lewis Johnson - There are many challenging aspects of investing. Perhaps in no other field does the oppressiveness of the unknown cast such a long shadow as over our efforts to safely shepherd capital through an[…]

Eyes on the Prize

By Lewis Johnson - The story of struggle, of hard work in a time of great adversity which leads through travail to eventual triumph, is an eternal human story. In all cultures and in all languages we can find examples[…]

"Seeing the Ball" Clearly: The Value of a Cogent and Controversial Narrative

By Lewis Johnson - Baseball is back! With the return of April and the rainy season here in south Florida, baseball has returned. As thoughts turn to baseball, I am reminded of the epic 1991 season for the Atlanta[…]

Sir Isaac Newton: Visionary Scientist, Lousy Investor

POSTED ON August 27th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost, Risk

By Lewis Johnson - "I can calculate the movement of stars but not the madness of men."

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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