TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Difference Between Brains and a Bull Market

POSTED ON November 29th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Coach Nick Saban’s success at the University of Alabama shows that disciplined processes win championships. In our opinion, investing is no different.  Investment returns are[…]

Up the Escalator, Down the Elevator

POSTED ON November 15th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators, Commodities

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The lightning fast 30% collapse in crude oil in recent days is a stark reminder of one market truism: markets go up the escalator and down the elevator.  If your goal is to avoid[…]

Rhyming History

POSTED ON November 1st - POSTED IN yield curve, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION "History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain Financial markets look ahead. Wait for the news and you may fall behind the biggest moves. It appears we are now very deep[…]

Noseless Statues

POSTED ON October 18th - POSTED IN

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION We think that a disciplined investment process is the investor’s most valuable tool in a cyclical, changing world.  

Homer's Iliad

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion I drew two conclusions from my re-reading of Homer’s classic “Iliad” during my family’s annual vacation to the mountains.  First, the importance of spending our time, our most[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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