TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Humiliation Machine: Take the Risks That You Get Paid to Take

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The market is a humiliation machine.  When you are being the most rational, the market makes you look the most stupid.  This is not a bug, it’s a feature.  Why?  Because the rational[…]

Volatility Makes a Comeback

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The most pressing problem that we attempt to solve for our clients is how to grow their hard-won savings thoughtfully.  Money only grows when it takes risk – but what risks to take? […]

Feed the Ducks While They Are Quacking: Time to Reduce Lower Quality Bond Positions

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Clients will begin to see a thoughtful winnowing of our selected holdings in corporate bonds rated less than investment grade.  The relentless search for yield has resulted in a[…]

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bond

POSTED ON November 30th - POSTED IN Bonds, Credit

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Evidence continues to accumulate globally that the secular bull market in bonds is alive and well.  We discuss the most recent data that includes Europe’s first negative yielding[…]

Understand Your Investment Decisions

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Investors underweighting the highest quality and longest duration bonds are ignoring the tail risks of deflationary shocks from China and Europe.  Such positioning may disappoint[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

Email Me!

Newsletter Signup

Featured On