TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Tech Valuations Party Like It's 1999

POSTED ON February 20th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future, technology

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION It should come as no surprise to our long-term readers that, when equity valuations become extended in our view, our research team grows more cautious.  Our team finds itself at such[…]

Identifying a Classic Gone With the Wind

POSTED ON January 9th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Recognizing a classic investment may be one of the most difficult – and rewarding - challenges in the world of investing.  In our opinion, to successfully do so, first you must[…]

Driving by Looking at the Rear-View Mirror

POSTED ON September 5th - POSTED IN Risk, Thinking About the Future, yield curve

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION No thinking person who gets behind the wheel of a car would ever dream of navigating by looking in the rear-view mirror. Yet, it seems that is exactly how the U.S. Federal Reserve is[…]

Get Long the Hurricane

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION In my opinion, the single toughest challenge in investing is to creatively think about risk management. We seek to balance our goals for long-term growth with the risks we face on[…]

Wealth Re-Distribution

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION We agree with Jude Wanniski that the single biggest determinant of our collective economy’s success in the future may come down to how the electorate decides to treat wealth and[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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