TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Creative Destruction

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION In today's “Trends and Tail Risks” we outline Joseph Schumpeter’s thesis of “creative destruction” and how it has inspired our research team to comb the markets for investments where[…]

Never Give In

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION We wanted to take a different tack in today’s “Trends and Tail Risks.” We are taking a step back from our typical investment focus and thinking about the big picture of what[…]

Tech Valuations Party Like It's 1999

POSTED ON February 20th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future, technology

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION It should come as no surprise to our long-term readers that, when equity valuations become extended in our view, our research team grows more cautious.  Our team finds itself at such[…]

Identifying a Classic Gone With the Wind

POSTED ON January 9th - POSTED IN Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Recognizing a classic investment may be one of the most difficult – and rewarding - challenges in the world of investing.  In our opinion, to successfully do so, first you must[…]

Driving by Looking at the Rear-View Mirror

POSTED ON September 5th - POSTED IN Risk, Thinking About the Future, yield curve

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION No thinking person who gets behind the wheel of a car would ever dream of navigating by looking in the rear-view mirror. Yet, it seems that is exactly how the U.S. Federal Reserve is[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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