TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Blind Men and the Elephant: De-Globalization Accelerates as Tariffs Rise

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Steel tariffs, and those on aluminum too, are much in the headlines. We maintain our long-held bullishness on the U.S. steel sector for reasons that have nothing to do with tariffs,[…]

Volatility Makes a Comeback

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The most pressing problem that we attempt to solve for our clients is how to grow their hard-won savings thoughtfully. Money only grows when it takes risk – but what risks to take?[…]

Clients Deserve More Than "Conventional Failure"

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion I can’t tell you how many times in the investment business I have heard someone parrot to me the first quote above, Keynes’ famous line about how it’s better to “fail conventionally”[…]

Research Trip to Ireland Suggests Europe’s Financial Problems Are Not Over

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Our recent research trip to Ireland’s “Kilkenomics” Conference strengthens our belief that the recent lull in Europe’s ongoing sovereign debt crisis will prove temporary. Countries[…]

Searching for Junonias: The Art of Rejection

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion: We agree with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger that the best ideas are rare. Our discipline is to seek out the best ideas and hold them, ideally, forever. Our search for rare[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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