TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Deeper Insight Through Indicators

POSTED ON June 29th - POSTED IN Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Cycles are always working in one direction or the other in the markets. How can investors avoid being victims of “unexpected” volatility, and better yet, even find a way to profit[…]

Ask Better Questions to Make More Money

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Asking better questions is the fastest way to make more money in the markets. In today’s “Trends and Tail Risks,” I will take a step back and explain the backstory of how asking[…]

Credit Watching: Exter's Inverted Pyramid At Work

POSTED ON May 31st - POSTED IN Credit

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion When danger rears its head, the mass of capital flees riskier assets to crowd into the much smaller quantity of safer assets, which drives up their price. Worsening credit quality,[…]

The Inventory Cycle Turns Down (Part Two)

POSTED ON May 18th - POSTED IN Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion We noted two weeks ago that our trusted indicators in the steel markets had signaled that the inventory cycle was turning lower. We expect higher-quality, longer-dated bonds to[…]

Preparing for the Peak of the Inventory Cycle

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Key leading indicators in the commodity markets support our expectation for a mid 2017 peak in the inventory cycle. Steel offers the best insight into this cycle and the slowdown[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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