TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Hippocratic Investing: First Do No Harm

POSTED ON April 20th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Our level of caution varies depending on where we are in the cycle in terms of time and valuation. The discipline of replacement cost analysis helps us in this endeavor.

Clients Are an Investment Firm's Most Important Assets

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Clients are an investment firm’s most important assets. Our goal is to treat clients like the critical partners they are in the investment process. Working together with them, is our[…]

An Investment Lesson from Homer's Odyssey

POSTED ON March 23rd - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost, Bottom Up Analysis

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Investors must protect themselves from the Siren song of deceptively important “news.” While news can change daily, the value of a company’s assets and business change only slowly.[…]

Understand Your Investment Decisions

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Investors underweighting the highest quality and longest duration bonds are ignoring the tail risks of deflationary shocks from China and Europe. Such positioning may disappoint[…]

The Rise of the Robots?

POSTED ON February 23rd - POSTED IN Commodities, Indicators, Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Robotics and automation technology improvements are reaching a critical mass. These technological advances along with bias from government policies that favor capital over labor have[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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