TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A monthly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Is Low Volatility Sustainable with Populists in Power?

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Populism’s explosive growth is likely sowing the seeds for dramatic change in the markets. Every day we see evidence of this in the news and in the markets. My own belief and concern[…]

The Message of the Yield Curve

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 20,000. Yet we now find ourselves deep into the fourth longest expansion in recent history. For good reason, investors are asking if this[…]

Activity Does Not Equal Progress: The Value of Patience and the Importance of Valuation

POSTED ON January 12th - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Indicators, Thinking About the Future

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion The two most necessary preconditions for successful investing are 1.) insight and 2.) patience. One without the other will do you absolutely no good. Held patiently, a diversified[…]

Trumpnomics on International Trade: The Times They Are a Changing

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion Do not underestimate the determination of the incoming Trump Administration to overturn the established norms of international trade. Don’t be surprised if, at the first opportunity,[…]

Navigating Confused Seas

POSTED ON December 15th - POSTED IN Risk, Cycles

By Lewis Johnson - Chief Conclusion As next year progresses, investors may find the markets tossed by the confused seas of conflicting cycles: the upcycle of the 40 month inventory cycle and the looming downcycle of[…]

Lewis Johnson
Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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