TRENDS & TAIL RISKS™

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Gold Analyst, Loneliest Guy in Town

POSTED ON January 10th - POSTED IN Gold, Relative Value of Gold (and Credit)

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION What we believe to be the biggest change in decades is underway in monetary policy, which is creating new winners and losers in the markets. Central banks are selling hundreds of[…]

Not Even Wrong

POSTED ON December 27th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The Fed is overtightening. It is advancing interest rates at a faster pace than that currently priced into the market. The stock market’s recent plunge, the worst December[…]

Skate Where the Puck's Going, Not Where It's Been

POSTED ON December 13th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Markets are rightly focused on the future, on where the puck is going, not on where the puck has been.  We try to direct our portfolios to where the puck is going through our[…]

The Difference Between Brains and a Bull Market

POSTED ON November 29th - POSTED IN Cycles, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION Coach Nick Saban’s success at the University of Alabama shows that disciplined processes win championships. In our opinion, investing is no different.  Investment returns are[…]

Up the Escalator, Down the Elevator

POSTED ON November 15th - POSTED IN Cycles, Commodities, Indicators

By Lewis Johnson - CHIEF CONCLUSION The lightning fast 30% collapse in crude oil in recent days is a stark reminder of one market truism: markets go up the escalator and down the elevator.  If your goal is to avoid[…]

Lewis Johnson
Co-Chief Investment Officer

Author of Trends & Tail Risks

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